When former Vice President Kamala Harris announced that she would not be running for California governor, she appeared to leave the door open to another shot at the White House in 2028.
However, the real Democratic contender to watch is not Harris.
Rather – implausible as it may seem to some – New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez appears to be the front-runner for Democrats’ 2028 presidential nomination, should she forgo a Senate campaign, which she would almost certainly win.
Put another way, right now, Kamala Harris will likely not be president in 2028, but AOC could very well be the Democratic nominee, with a shot at the White House.
I say this for multiple reasons.
First, it could be argued that AOC is even stronger than other presidential candidates at this moment in their careers or respective races.
At this point in the 2008 election cycle – coinciding with the summer of 2005 – Barack Obama was not even considered enough of a serious candidate to be included in polls.
Likewise, in the 2020 primary – which Harris was forced to withdraw from before a single vote was even cast – Harris’ highwater mark in polling two years out was 7% in an Axios poll.
That was good for 5th place, trailing former President Biden by 15-points, and even Oprah Winfrey by 9-points.
Conversely, Ocasio-Cortez is already a top finisher in 2028 Democratic primary polls.
Per Race to the White House polling aggregator, AOC (10%) ranks 3rd, behind former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Gov. Gavin Newsom (13% each) – a virtual tie – when Harris is not included.
And when polls with Harris are included, the former VP (21%) is well below even a 30% barrier, having seen her support drop 14-points since January, whereas AOC’s has risen by 9-points.
Still, in individual polls where Harris and AOC are tested together, AOC held a four-point lead over the former VP (19% to 15%), according to AtlasIntel polling.
Similarly, political betting sites such as Polymarket show Ocasio-Cortez with the 2nd best odds, trailing Newsom by just four points (20% to 16%). Harris is in 5th with just 6%.
Additionally, AOC’s favorability (46%) ranks higher than President Trump (44%), as well as Vice President JD Vance and former Vice President Kamala Harris (42% each), per AtlasIntel.
There also may be reason to believe that AOC could do as well in a general election as Newsom or Buttigieg.
In a series of hypothetical 2028 matchups pitting Vance against top Democrats, Vance’s three-point lead over AOC (44% to 41%) is virtually identical to his lead over Newsom (45% to 42%) and over Pete Buttigieg (44% to 43%), per Emerson.
Notably, Harris was not even tested in the Emerson poll.
Behind Ocasio-Cortez’s strong polling numbers are her dominant fundraising and convening abilities, especially her ability to generate enthusiasm.
Recently, the Wall Street Journal reported that AOC raised more than $15 million in 2025 – almost double Speaker Mike Johnson, with 99% coming from small dollar donors.